IMF publishes its latest World Economic Outlook
Not all developing countries, unlike Kazakhstan, were able to cope with the first COVID-19 wave that hit the world so unexpectedly. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published its October World Economic Outlook (WEO). According to the latest economic forecast, Kazakhstan’s GDP is expected to fall by 2.7 percent in 2020. Although this is basically the lowest figure for the country in the last 30 years, experts made an analysis and indicated that the situation in Kazakhstan’s economy is much better compared to many other developing countries.
“As a rule, the IMF’s forecasts do not foresee the situation as much as reacts to what is happening at the moment. The organization issues four economic outlooks a year and each of them focuses on the trends that are occurring at the moment. First of all, I must say that the decline of our economy is much smaller than in other countries of the world, which was emphasized in the recent IMF report. It is, to a large extent, the result of the efforts that Kazakhstan made to halt the crisis. This indictor is indeed significantly smaller than similar projections in the global and the regional economy Kazakhstan is compared with,” said Vyacheslav Dodonov, Chief Research Fellow at Kazakhstan Institute For Strategic Studies.
The IMF updated its forecast for the decline of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP this year by 8 percent. The GDP was earlier projected to shrink by 4 percent, but the latest assessment indicated a fall by 12 percent. The forecast for GDP growth of Turkmenistan and Tajikistan remained at the level of 1.8 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively. The IMF’s estimate for GDP growth of Uzbekistan was revised from 1.8 percent to 0.7 percent. According to the IMF’s April 2020 outlook, a severe slowdown in Central Asia’s economies is primarily due to the curbing of the spread of COVID-19.