Moody’s: Kazakhstan Less Vulnerable to Oil Crisis
Kazakhstan, compared to other oil-exporting sovereigns, is less vulnerable to the oil crisis, due to stronger initial fiscal positions and smaller fiscal vulnerability to declines in oil prices, credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service said in a report.
“Sovereigns with capacity to significantly increase oil output, even at low prices, even at low prices, and those with a demonstrated track record of being to reduce spending, as in 2015-16, are in a better position to weather the storm. Qatar, Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will also benefit from significantly stronger initial fiscal positions, smaller fiscal vulnerability to declines in oil prices, and/or willingness to allow local currency depreciation to buffer the revenue and the current account shock,” the agency said in a report.
Moody’s forecasts the price of Brent crude to average US$40-45 per barrel this year, and between US$50-US$55 per barrel in 2021, about 30% and 15% below the previous expectations. The agency hasn’t changed its expectation that oil prices will average US$50-70 per barrel over the medium term.