According to the updated forecast of the IMF GDP growth in Kazakhstan this year will total 5% and in 2014 it will slightly exceed this figure. Inflation in the Republic will be in the range of 6-8%. The situation on international markets was named one of the unfavourabla factors by international analysts. The experts of the International Monetary Fund emphasize that growth rates in the near term will remain high although risk of their reduction against the forecast will remain. Recovery of oil and gas production as well as other extractive industries supports economic activity. The countries of Central Asia must take advantage of the existing conditions in order to improve their resilience to shocks by increasing budgetary and financial buffer reserves. Here non-oil fiscal balance becomes important – it is the budget revenue part that excludes revenues from hydrocarbon exports. The level of economic activity in Kazakhstan continues to rise rapidly by about 6 percent per year. Despite the slowing of this pace compared to even faster pace during a decade preceding the financial crisis our country continues to be booming. Still Kazakhstan as a country integrated into the international space depends on the economic situation in Europe and the U.S. However apart from internal risks the majority of them is related to the banking sector. Economic growth in Kazakhstan is still stable and relies not only on hydrocarbon resources but also on the steel industry and agriculture. It is expected that these trends will remain present in the coming year despite a projected decline in commodity prices. In this case the IMF experts recommend oil and gas importing countries to expand tax bases, while reducing costs as well as using the opportunities for increasing the level of "targeting of social protection and investment in health, education and infrastructure systems." Also IMF also recommends importing countries to increase the degree of exchange rate flexibility thus reducing the risk of fluctuations in output volume and prices.
During the past 15-20 months, the sector of consumer lending has been increasing by about 30-40% annually. Moreover, market participants believe the boom of consumer lending is yet to come. According to experts, at present loans for the purchase of household appliances hardly reach 10% of GDP, whereas in the developed countries the same figure exceeds 30%. In addition, the growth in retail lending in Kazakhstan lags behind the growth of this sector in neighboring Russia. However, the competition in this market increases every year. Another area of intense competition for the banking sector is technologies. At present the banking market is undergoing major changes and in recent years it has gained some features of the rapidly growing market of new banking technologies. In western countries, the activities of banks have almost no areas and types of transactions, which would not be using computers and other electronic equipment. The Kazakhstan banking sector is moving towards this direction. At present Kazakhstan uses three categories of settlement funds, including cash, checks and electronic payments. Developing electronic and online payment facilities, banks aim at maintaining and expanding their market share, reducing operating costs and gaining some new sources of revenue.
In September 2013 the turnover of trade in agricultural commodity sector on ETS exchange amounted to 24.8 billion or more than 160 million U.S. dollars in monetary terms.
The leading position is occupied by grain trade sector. In real terms - over the reporting period this figure amounted to 749 thousand tons which is more than two times that was in August. Experts say that the increase in turnover is characterized by the start of the new grain season. In September the ETS Commodity Exchange registered 64 deals for wheat of class 3 with the total turnover of 293,6 million tons valued at 9,2 billion KZT. The volume of transactions for the wheat of class 4 was 6 tons for 186 million tenge. The total volume of export deals for 110 thousand tons of wheat was worth $ 4 million tenge. According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Agriculture - grain export capacity is expected to reach 9-9,5 million tons. The total amount of available storage tanks of grain is 24,6 million tons.
As experts say this allows accepting a projected gross grain volume of about 18 million tons. Analysts of information portal "Kazakh-Grain" note that Kazakhstan's grain market may become more mobile with the appearance of a new Kazakh-Russian railway grain operator and also due to a significant increase in vehicles serving the Kazakhstan market. The third factor is the introduction of new logistics technologies such as the "routing" of grain transfer that allows reducing time and costs.
The people of Kazakhstan are increasingly buying cars, using the auto loan. In this case under the law the purchase is subject to mandatory auto insurance. And here lays the first problem faced by newly minted owners of cars. The banks bypassing the legislation put obstacles to borrowers who have decided to choose an insurance company at their sole discretion. The volume of payments of insurers for motor insurance has exceeded T14 billion. We are talking about approximately 40%-growth which fact allows to evaluate the potential of this market in superlative terms. However, the development of motor hull insurance is being prevented not only by unfavorable conditions of insurance subsidiaries of banks. Insurers say that service stations overestimate the cost of repair by several times.